Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expectations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification Equilibrium agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when monetary policy rules satisfy the Taylor principle by adjusting nominal interest rates more than one for one with inflation, there may exist equilibria with Intrinsic Heterogeneity. Under certain conditions, there may exist multiple misspecification equilibria. We show that these findings have important implications for business cycle dynamics and for the design of monetary policy. JEL Classifications: G12; G14; D82; D83
منابع مشابه
Alternative Conditions to Time Inconsistency Equilibrium of an International Monetary Policy
Monetary policy rule is an approach to avoid time inconsistency problem as regarded by new classical economist to choose a time plan for policy making in order to maximize householdsâ well-being. The foundation of time inconsistency problem is not coincidence of expectations as an ex-ante variable, which is expected variable, with actual variable as an ex-post variable. Expectations in Finn K...
متن کاملMonetary policy with heterogeneous and misspecified expectations
In recent literature on monetary policy and learning, it has been suggested that private sector’s expectations should play a role in the policy rule implemented by the central bank, as they could improve the ability of the policymaker to stabilize the economy. Private sector’s expectations, in these studies, are often taken to be homogeneous and rational, at least in the limit of a learning pro...
متن کاملOptimal Monetary Policy under Heterogeneous Expectations
Monetary policy has an important role in the determination of the inflation rate and the output gap time trajectories. Monetary authorities should choose the nominal interest rate time path that best serves the goals of price stability (primarily) and output growth (as a consequence of the first). In this paper it is presented a framework under which an optimal interest rate rule is computed, a...
متن کاملStock Market Uncertainty and the Analysis of Monetary Policy shock
Policy makers impose policies to improve economy circumstance in order to achieve economic goals. However, the consequence of these policies along with the intended goals will also influence expectations, fluctuations, etc., and cause changes in levels of uncertainty. The important role of the stock market in the economy, makes it important to examine its uncertainty and its interaction with mo...
متن کاملInterest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability under Heterogeneous Expectations
The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations, and update their beliefs based on past performance, as in Bro...
متن کامل